Thursday, March 10, 2011

Here it comes..


Municipalities are reminded to review their Local Emergency Operations Plans.

At 2:45 PM radar showed light rain over Western CT.  Rain is forecast to very slowly spread to the East during the rest of today and tonight.  Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 40’s.  Warmer and more humid air is currently located in Central NJ and is expected to begin moving into Southern New England this evening.  This storm has the potential to bring another 2 – 4 inches of rain to some locations in the Northeast resulting in 2 – 3 inches of snowmelt in some areas.  The current axis of heavy rainfall is still forecast to be located in Eastern PA and NY, however western Connecticut is very close to the area of heaviest rain and any shift to the East in the axis could bring 2 – 4 inches of rain into the Housatonic River basin.  The rest of the state is forecast to receive 1 – 2 inches of rain. 

Most of the heavy rain from this storm is still expected to occur between midnight tonight and noon on Friday as a very slow moving cold front (currently located in Eastern PA) moves through Western CT late tonight and Friday morning with some embedded thunderstorms.  Urban flooding is likely to begin  just after midnight with small streams and rivers rising above flood stage by daybreak.  The Housatonic River is expected to begin rising around midnight reaching moderate flood levels by daybreak.  Towns are advised to very closely monitor this storm.  Any stalling of the cold front or training of thunderstorms could result in severe urban flooding and major river flooding if total rainfall exceeds 3 inches between midnight and Noon on Friday.  The Department of Environmental Protection is also monitoring this storm closely.  The Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will issue another update on this storm at 6:00 PM.

RIVER                                                 CURRENT     FLOOD           CURRENT FLOOD   PRELIMINARY FORECAST
                                                            STAGE           STAGE           LEVEL                                    FOR FRIDAY
Farmington River at Simsbury           11.3 FT            12.0 FT            Below Flood Stage      Rising to 15.7 Feet by 2 PM Sat
Housatonic River at Gaylordsville        9.4 FT              8.0 FT            Minor                           Rising to 12.4 Feet by 2 PM Sat
Housatonic River at Stevenson          12.8 FT            11.0 FT            Minor                           Rising to 15.4 Feet by 2 AM Sat
Still River at Brookfield                       10.2 FT            12.0 FT            Below Flood Stage      Rising to 16.0 Feet by 8 PM Fri*
Connecticut River at Hartford            16.4 FT            16.0 FT            Minor                           Rising to 17.6 Feet by 8 PM Sat
Connecticut River at Middletown         9.5 FT              8.0 FT            Falling then rising        Rising to 9.0 Feet by 6 PM Sat
Quinnipiac River at Southington           4.4 FT              6.0 FT            Below Flood Stage      Rising to 8.0 Feet by 4 PM Fri*
Quinnipiac River at Wallingford            6.0 FT            10.0 FT            Below Flood Stage      Rising to 10.0 Feet by 8 PM Fri*
Pomperaug at Southbury                     5.0 FT              8.0 FT            Below Flood Stage      Rising to 15.0 Feet by 2 PM Fri*

*Estimate based on historical flow records from April 2007 Flood Event.

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